Beyond Tax Brackets: How Proposed Tax Changes Impact Vermont’s Businesses, Workforce, and Economy
Analysis led by Amy Spear, President, in partnership with the Vermont Futures Project
Overview
The Vermont Chamber of Commerce advances the Vermont economy through advocacy, community, and resources. As part of that work, we analyze how policy decisions intersect with Vermont’s unique economic structure.
A proposal currently under consideration would introduce new tax provisions, including a high-income surtax, an investment proceeds tax, and a minimum tax based on adjusted gross income. While often framed as a tax on wealth, the structure of this proposal means its effects extend well beyond passive income. In Vermont, where the economy is largely driven by locally owned, pass-through businesses, the practical impact reaches into active business operations, workforce competitiveness, and long-term economic growth.
Why This Matters for Vermont
Vermont’s economy is distinct. Most businesses are not large corporations. They are small and mid-sized employers structured as:
- LLCs
- S corporations
- Partnerships
- Sole proprietorships
In these models, business income flows through to personal tax returns. That means what appears as individual income is often active business income used to operate and grow a company. Understanding this structure is essential to evaluating how tax policy functions in practice.
A Look at Vermont’s Current Tax Structure
Vermont already has one of the most progressive tax systems in the country.
- Vermont ranks near the top nationally in tax progressivity
- Higher income earners already contribute a disproportionate share of total income tax revenue
- Effective tax rates increase steadily across income brackets
This context is important. The conversation is not about whether Vermont has a progressive system. It already does. The question is how additional structural changes interact with Vermont’s economic realities.
What the Proposal Does
The proposal introduces three major changes:
- New surcharge layers on higher income taxpayers
- A new tax on certain investment-related gains
- A minimum tax requiring taxpayers above a threshold to pay a percentage of adjusted gross income
Unlike traditional tax structures based on taxable income, this approach introduces a minimum tax floor tied to gross income, regardless of deductions, reinvestment, or business expenses. This distinction is critical for Vermont businesses.
The Pass-Through Effect: When Business Income Is Personal Income
For many Vermont employers, income reported on a personal tax return is not discretionary income. It may already be committed to:
- Payroll
- Equipment and capital investment
- Insurance and operating costs
- Debt service
For example, a business owner may report strong income in a given year, but much of that income is reinvested into the business to sustain operations and growth. Policies that do not distinguish between passive income and active business income can create outcomes that do not align with how businesses actually function.
Reinvestment and Growth Implications
Business growth in Vermont often depends on retained earnings. When after-tax resources are reduced, businesses may face harder decisions around:
- Hiring
- Wage increases
- Expansion
- Innovation
In a state working to grow its economy and address workforce shortages, reinvestment capacity is a key driver of long-term success.
Business Succession and Local Ownership
One of the most significant considerations is the impact on business succession.
When a Vermont business owner retires or sells a company, the transaction often generates capital gains. These are not abstract financial events. They represent years, often decades, of investment and risk.
Changes to how these transactions are taxed can influence outcomes such as:
- Whether businesses are transferred locally or sold to outside buyers
- The viability of employee or family ownership transitions
- The long-term presence of locally rooted businesses
Across industries, from engineering firms to healthcare practices to hospitality businesses, there is increasing pressure from external buyers, including private equity.
When local ownership becomes more difficult to sustain, it can gradually reshape the structure of Vermont’s economy.
Workforce Competitiveness
Vermont is already facing workforce shortages in critical fields, including:
- Healthcare
- Engineering
- Technology
Many of these professions fall within income ranges affected by the proposal. In a competitive regional landscape, policy decisions influence where professionals choose to live and work. Even incremental differences in tax structure can affect recruitment and retention over time.
Economic Stability and Revenue Considerations
A tax system that relies heavily on a small group of high-income filers can introduce:
- Revenue volatility
- Greater sensitivity to economic cycles
- Increased exposure to changes in taxpayer behavior
In a small state, these dynamics can have outsized effects. Long-term fiscal stability is strengthened by broad-based growth that expands the tax base over time.
Affordability and Structural Challenges
Affordability is a central concern for Vermonters. However, it is important to distinguish between redistribution and structural change.
Addressing affordability at its core requires:
- Expanding housing supply
- Strengthening workforce participation
- Managing healthcare costs
- Improving economic productivity
These are the drivers that reduce costs over time and support sustainable growth.
Alignment with Vermont’s Economic Strategy
Vermont’s long-term strategy, as outlined in the Economic Action Plan, focuses on:
- Growing the workforce
- Expanding housing
- Increasing business investment
- Strengthening competitiveness
Policies that support these goals help build a larger, more resilient economic base. Policies that constrain reinvestment, complicate succession, or reduce competitiveness can move the state in the opposite direction.
A Path Forward
As Vermont continues to evaluate its policy choices, there is an opportunity to align tax policy with long-term economic goals by:
- Distinguishing between passive wealth and active business income
- Supporting business succession and local ownership
- Preserving reinvestment capacity
- Evaluating workforce competitiveness impacts
The Bottom Line
In Vermont’s economy, tax policy does not operate in isolation. Because of the state’s reliance on pass-through businesses and locally owned enterprises, changes to personal tax structures can have broad and sometimes unintended effects.
A strong and sustainable Vermont economy depends on policies that:
- Encourage growth
- Support local businesses
- Attract and retain workforce
- Expand opportunity over time


