Manufacturing

GlobalFoundries offers both space and an array of amenities for Québec manufacturing companies seeking a U.S. footprint. To capitalize on this market opportunity, the Vermont Chamber, the Vermont Agency of Commerce, GBIC, and CIDEP (Vermont’s foreign trade representative firm in Montréal) are partnering with GlobalFoundries on tenant recruitment efforts to grow Vermont’s $3 billion dollar manufacturing industry. This work supports of the Governor’s economic development priorities to strengthen our ties with Québec and transform Vermont into a Supply Chain Hub. Recruitment of Québec companies in the aerospace and defense sectors also strengthens cross-border commerce and the Vermont Chamber’s work to build the Vermont – Québec Aerospace Trade Corridor.

November follows October, which was celebrated as Manufacturing Month nationwide, and is a time to pivot, get back to business, and navigate the road ahead, which presents a mixed picture.

The Institute for Supply Chain Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), an index that measures U.S. manufacturing activity, fell 0.7 percentage points to 50.2 in October, the lowest level since May 2020, just over the 50 threshold that reflects a shrinking economy. Manufacturing is slowing due to a decline in business spending and demand for consumer goods, according to the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM).

In contrast, the U.S. economy rebounded in the third quarter, expanding 2.6% at the annual rate, due in part to strong consumer spending on services, government, and net exports. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the annual inflation rate also fell 7.7% in October from 8.2% in September. While supplier price and inflation are possibly abating, it is important to remember that rises and falls in inflation have happened before in waves. Real GDP, furthermore, is forecasted to increase 1.8% in 2022 with only 0.7% growth in 2023, elevating the risk of recession.

On the upside for manufacturing, supply chain bottlenecks continue to improve with supplier delivery times, manufacturing production expanded by 0.4% in September (4.7% year-over-year), employment increased by 32,000 in October (up from 23,000 in September), and output in the third quarter increased by 1.4%, demonstrating manufacturing resilience to the many challenges from soaring costs and workforce labor shortages to economic uncertainties.

October is Manufacturing Month nationwide and is celebrated in Vermont with events and onsite tours of plants and facilities. It is essential to showcase Vermont’s $3 billion industry as an important economic driver that employs more than 28,000 Vermonters (10% of Vermont’s workforce) and contributes 9% to Vermont’s Gross Domestic Product.

Manufacturing contributes to the greater economy via the:  

• Economic Multiplier Impact: Every $1 in manufactured goods generates an estimated $2.79 worth of additional economic activity, the highest of any other economic sector. If the entire manufacturing supply chain is included, every $1 spent in manufacturing adds another $3.60 worth of additional economic activity.
• Employment Multiplier Impact: Each manufacturing job supports an additional 5 jobs elsewhere.

Nationally, September saw an increase in manufacturing activity from August, but saw a decline in the index, from 52.8% to 50.9%, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Overall, the data is mixed with new orders contracted, production and inventories increasing, and prices slowing, as reported on the Q3 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey done by National Association of Manufacturers (NAM).

While the economy added 263,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the second quarter saw U.S. economy shrink by 0.6% and the real GDP decline by 8.5% in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing job openings fell in August from 910,000 to 795,000, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. However, manufacturing job openings remained high overall, as demand for goods increased the need for employees during a severe workforce labor shortage. Manufacturers hired an increase of 24,000 workers for a total of 452,000, up from 428,000 in July, according to NAM.

Inflation accelerated in September, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.4%, for a total of 8.2% over the past 12 months. Looking ahead to the remainder of Q4 manufacturers can expect additional higher interest rate hikes, supply chain disruptions, and worker shortages. All of this will compound, leading to recession worries in 2022 or 2023.

These pressures and workforce challenges will persist into Q4 and beyond, but manufacturing has proved resilient. According to NAM, the manufacturing value-added output increased to an all-time high of $2.768 trillion in Q2, while the industry accounted for 11% of manufacturing value-added output.