Vermont Wages Outpace Inflation Pace Amid Economic Uncertainty

Vermont Wages Outpace Inflation Pace Amid Economic Uncertainty

ADP, a payroll processing firm, reports an annual increase of 8.1%, with wages growing more than 14% for young workers and over 10% percent for workers in the leisure and hospitality sectors, Vermont’s largest industry. From 2019 to 2022 the Vermont Department of Labor reports an average wage increase of 21.8%. Employers are doing their part to invest in Vermonters.  

As businesses invest more in labor, they are also facing inflation, ongoing supply chain issues, interest rate hikes, and layoffs/hiring freezes are all contributing to unpredictable economic conditions. During a time of great uncertainty, we need to value the economy. Central to the Vermont Chamber’s work this session will be economic stewardship and advocating that an increased tax burden on Vermonters right now could overwhelm the Vermont economy.  

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Vermont’s Congressional Delegation Takes Office

Vermont’s Congressional Delegation Takes Office

Senator Peter Welch and Representative Becca Balint have officially been sworn in to their official offices. Both congressional delegation members have demonstrated their commitment to the business community at Vermont Chamber events in recent months.  

In November, Welch met with restaurant leaders for a roundtable discussion reaffirming his support for the industry amid ongoing pandemic recovery efforts. Balint was a featured speaker at the inaugural Wellspring Forum, an event dedicated to connecting top business and policy leaders. She expressed her commitment to addressing issues top of mind for Vermont businesses such as workforce and housing. She also articulated her support for the manufacturing industry, stating, “I believe we have an opportunity, and an obligation, to bring more manufacturing back to Vermont. When you have people building things in your community, it’s an economic benefit and it also fosters pride of place.” 

Additional information is available here: 
The Office of Senator Bernie Sanders 
The Office of Senator Peter Welch  
The Office of Representative Becca Balint 

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Proposed Paid Family and Medical Leave Bill Funded by Payroll Tax

Proposed Paid Family and Medical Leave Bill Funded by Payroll Tax

The highly anticipated paid family and medical leave (PFML) bill was presented to the Democratic Caucus, kicking off what will be one of the most high-profile policies debated this session. If enacted as introduced, the program would be funded by a payroll insurance premium. 

The bill in circulation would begin debate in the House General and Housing Committee. As drafted, it contains a 0.58% payroll tax split between employer and employee, an opt-in 58% payroll tax option for self-employed individuals and a significant $20 million in general funding to set up the administration of the program. A paid family leave bill that was passed but ultimately vetoed in 2019 would have implemented a 0.93% payroll tax.  

In addition to parental bonding leave and time spent caring for a family member or personal health issues, the bill covers various other types of leave including military deployment and trauma recovery from interpersonal violence. The proposed legislation would provide up to 12 weeks of complete wage replacement and job protection for all workers, including part-time, seasonal, and self-employed, and would allow employers to opt-out if they provide coverage of equal or more significant value.   

An alternative plan announced by the Governor’s Office in December would be administered by a private insurer with a cost to $2 million annually to cover state employees. This plan would allow businesses to opt-in, and would not require a statewide payroll tax. The plan would offer 60% wage replacement for up to six weeks.  

The Vermont Chamber will be advocating for legislative leaders to consider the cumulative tax impact of their proposals this session. In particular, the long-awaited childcare financing study is due to be released next week and is anticipated to include an additional payroll tax. In recent days legislative leaders have appeared hesitant at the prospect of both paid family and medical leave and childcare being passed this session. 

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Governor Proposes Greater Infrastructure Investments

Governor Proposes Greater Infrastructure Investments

One of the first orders of business every session is to adjust the budget based on additional available funding, changes in program costs, and needs. This year’s Budget Adjustment Act (BAA) recommendations from Governor Scott have emphasized a focus on advancing economic growth statewide, a theme championed by the Vermont Chamber. 

In his proposal, the Governor prioritized the needs of rural Vermont, and further communicated his economic development and workforce initiative priorities for this session. These proposals will now be negotiated in committees. 

$3M in one-time investments would establish a Rural Infrastructure Assistance Program to provide resources to towns that struggle with the staff capacity to apply for or administer time-sensitive American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) grant funding. The program would allow small, rural, communities to take advantage of ARPA funding and make essential investments in housing, water, sewer, and broadband. These projects are foundational to the economic vitality of Vermont. New programs are not typically supported in the BAA, but the House Commerce committee will be asked to review this proposal and make a recommendation to House Appropriations.  

Other notable items included in the budget adjustment proposal: 

  • $30M of upfront investments required to secure a $114M federal broadband grant to install 1,663 miles of fiber-optic cable 
  • $11.2M to the Department of Mental Health to bolster the traveling nurse workforce 
  • $5M to the Agency of Commerce and Community Development (ACCD) for additional Vermont Housing Improvement Program 
  • $3M to the Department of Children and Families to continue the transitional housing program, previously funded by the federal CARES Act  
  • $542,640 of increased funding to ACCD for the Municipal and Regional Planning Fund 
  • $350,000 to the Agency of Human Services for grantmaking for refugee resettlement organizations  

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State House Shakeup: Committee Assignments

State House Shakeup: Committee Assignments

With substantial turnover in both the House and the Senate, many legislators find themselves on new committees, and some committees find themselves largely made up of new legislators. Some committee purview was also restructured, with the Committee on Natural Resources, Fish and Wildlife, being dissolved, and the Committee on Energy and Technology Committee expanding to undertake those policy areas. Additionally, military affairs have moved from the Committee on General and Housing to the Committee on Government Operations. In a biennium that also welcomes a new President Pro Tempore of the Senate and three new statewide elected officials, the shuffle seems to be the theme of the session so far. 

Key Senate Committee Assignments  

Appropriations 
Sen. Jane Kitchel, Chair, D-Caledonia 
Sen. Andrew Perchlik, Vice Chair, D/P-Washington* 
Sen. Richard Westman, R-Lamoille 
Sen. Robert Starr, D-Orleans 
Sen. Dick Sears Jr., D-Bennington 
Sen. Philip Baruth, D/P-Chittenden-Central 
Sen. Virginia “Ginny” Lyons, D-Chittenden-Southeast* 

Economic Development, Housing, and General Affairs 
Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale, Chair, D-Chittenden-Southeast 
Sen. Alison Clarkson, Vice Chair, D-Windsor 
Sen. Randy Brock, R-Franklin 
Sen. Ann Cummings, D-Washington* 
Sen. Wendy Harrison, D-Windham** 

Finance 
Sen. Ann Cummings, Chair, D-Washington 
Sen. Mark A. MacDonald, Vice Chair, D-Orange 
Sen. Christopher Bray, D-Addison 
Sen. Dick McCormack, D-Windsor 
Sen. Randy Brock, R-Franklin 
Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale, D-Chittenden-Southeast 
Sen. Thomas Chittenden, D-Chittenden-Southeast*  

Natural Resources and Energy 
Sen. Christopher Bray, Chair, D-Addison 
Sen. Anne Watson, Vice Chair, D/P-Washington** 
Sen. Dick McCormack, D-Windsor 
Sen. Mark A. MacDonald, D-Orange 
Sen. Rebecca White, D-Windsor  

Key House Committee Assignments

Appropriations 
Rep. Diane Lanpher, Chair, D-Vergennes* 
Rep. Robin Scheu, Vice Chair, D-Middlebury 
Rep. Patrick Brennan, Ranking Member, R-Colchester* 
Rep. Tiffany Bluemle, D-Burlington* 
Rep. Eileen Dickinson, R-St. Albans Town* 
Rep. Katherine “Kari” Dolan, D-Waitsfield* 
Rep. James Harrison, R-Chittenden 
Rep. Rebecca Holcombe, D-Norwich** 
Rep. Marc Mihaly, D-East Calais** 
Rep. Woodman Page, R-Newport* 
Rep. Trevor Squirrell, D-Underhill 
Rep. Tristan Toleno, D-Brattleboro 

Commerce & Economic Development 
Rep. Michael Marcotte, Chair, R-Newport 
Rep. Stephanie Jerome, Vice Chair, D-Brandon 
Rep. Logan Nicoll, Ranking Member, D-Ludlow 
Rep. Kirk White, D/P-Bethel 
Rep. Jim Carroll, D-Bennington 
Rep. Heather Chase, D-Chester** 
Rep. Edye Graning, D-Jericho** 
Rep. Emma Mulvaney-Stanak, P/D-Burlington 
Rep. Monique Priestley, D-Bradford** 
Rep. Jarrod Sammis, R-Castleton** 
Rep. Jonathan Williams, D-Barre City** 

Environment and Energy  
Rep. Amy Sheldon, Chair, D-East Middlebury 
Rep. Laura Sibilia, Vice Chair, I-West Dover* 
Rep. Seth Bongartz, Ranking Member, D-Manchester 
Rep. Paul Clifford, R-Rutland**  
Rep. Kate Logan, P/D-Burlington** 
Rep. Kristi Morris, D-Springfield 
Rep. Avram Patt, D-Worcester 
Rep. Larry Satcowitz, D-Randolph 
Rep. Gabrielle Stebbins, D-Burlington** 
Rep. Brian Smith, R-Derby* 
Rep. Dara Torre, D-Moretown** 

House General & Housing 
Rep. Thomas Stevens, Chair, D-Waterbury 
Rep. Robin Chesnut-Tangerman, Vice Chair, D-Middletown Springs* 
Rep. Kathleen James, Ranking Member, D-Manchester Center* 
Rep. Ashley Bartley, R-Fairfax**
Rep. Elizabeth Burrows, D/P-West Windsor* 
Rep. Caleb Elder, D-Starksboro* 
Rep. Mary E. Howard, D-Rutland 
Rep. Emilie Krasnow, D-South Burlington** 
Rep. Dennis LaBounty, D-Lyndon 
Rep. Larry Labor, R-Morgan 
Rep. Saudia LaMont, D-Morrisville** 
Rep. Joseph Parsons, R-Newbury 

Ways and Means 
Rep. Emilie Kornheiser, Chair, D-Brattleboro 
Rep. William Canfield, Vice Chair, R-Fair Haven 
Rep. Carl Demrow, Ranking Member, D-Corinth* 
Rep. Julia Andrews, D-Westford** 
Rep. Peter Anthony, D-Barre City 
Rep. Scott Beck, R-St. Johnsbury 
Rep. Carolyn Branagan, R-Georgia 
Rep. James Masland, D-Thetford 
Rep. Christopher Mattos, R-Milton 
Rep. Carol Ode, D-Burlington 
Rep. Katherine Sims, D-Craftsbury* 
Rep. Curt Taylor, D-Colchester*  

* New to the committee 
** New to the legislature

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Chairs Take the Helm in Key Committees

Chairs Take the Helm in Key Committees

With 12 newly appointed committee chairs, some of whom will oversee policy that impacts the business community, there’s been a notable shift in the House and Senate leadership this session. In the Senate, Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale will be the new chair of the Senate Committee on Economic Development, Housing, & General Affairs. Sen. Ram Hinsdale recently joined a roundtable discussion with business leaders convened by the Vermont Chamber and has expressed her support for housing reform and a commitment to prioritizing policy action that addresses workforce shortages. The Senate Committee on Finance will once again be chaired by Sen. Ann Cummings, whom we recognized as an “All-Star Legislator” last year for her work to pass the manufacturing tax exemption as well as securing $17 million in savings for health insurance costs for small businesses and employees. 

The House Committee on Ways and Means, the committee with jurisdiction over tax policy, will be newly chaired by Rep. Emilie Kornheiser, who we also recognized for her work on the Manufacturing Tax Exemption. In recent weeks, Kornheiser has discussed increasing government spending, stating, “I think that the scale of budgets that we were able to see during the pandemic, and the impact of huge federal spending on our communities, I think and I hope shifted the scale of our thinking somewhat so that it takes a larger number for us to blink.” The House Committee on Commerce and Economic Development has a returning chair, Rep. Michael Marcotte. Marcotte also received “All-Star Legislator” recognition last session for his work to secure the VEDA forgivable loan program. 

Senate Committee Chairs 
Agriculture: Sen. Bobby Starr, D-Orleans 
Appropriations: Sen. Jane Kitchel, D-Caledonia 
Economic Development, Housing & General Affairs: Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale, D-Chittenden Southeast 
Education: Sen. Brian Campion, D-Bennington 
Finance: Sen. Ann Cummings, D-Washington 
Government Operations: Sen. Ruth Hardy, D-Addison 
Health and Welfare: Sen. Ginny Lyons, D-Chittenden Southeast 
Institutions: Sen. Russ Ingalls, R-Essex 
Judiciary: Sen. Dick Sears, D-Bennington 
Natural Resources: Sen. Chris Bray, D-Addison 
Transportation: Sen. Dick Mazza, D-Grand Isle 

House Committee Chairs 
Agriculture, Food Resiliency and Forestry: Rep. David Durfee, D-Shaftsbury 
Appropriations: Rep. Diane Lanpher, D-Vergennes 
Commerce and Economic Development: Rep. Michael Marcotte, R-Coventry 
Corrections and Institutions: Rep. Alice Emmons, D-Springfield 
Education: Rep. Peter Conlon, D-Cornwall 
Environment and Energy: Rep. Amy Sheldon, D-Middlebury 
General and Housing: Rep. Tom Stevens, D-Waterbury 
Government Operations and Military Affairs: Rep. Mike McCarthy, D-St. Albans City 
Health Care: Rep. Lori Houghton, D-Essex Junction 
Human Services: Rep. Theresa Wood, D-Waterbury 
Judiciary: Rep. Martin LaLonde, D-South Burlington 
Transportation: Rep. Sara Coffey, D-Guilford 
Ways and Means: Rep. Emilie Kornheiser, D/P-Brattleboro 

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Legislature Must Balance Economic Conditions with Priorities

Legislature Must Balance Economic Conditions with Priorities

The Vermont economy is showing signs of distress, and as the legislature convenes, they need to carefully balance current conditions with the weight of the work ahead. Consumers’ disposable personal income has been hurt by:   

  • 7% inflation   
  • 20% increase in the cost of groceries  
  • 10% increase in the cost of gasoline  
  • 7% increase in the cost of housing  

This has put further pressure on businesses. American businesses, nonprofit organizations, and government entities are now contending with:   

  • Supply chain disruptions cost them an average of $228 million per year  
  • A historic workforce shortage, which fueled 21% wage growth over the past two years in Vermont  
  • Falling consumer consumption  
  • The Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate hikes  
  • Policy changes passed by the Vermont legislature over the past biennium, including the enhanced Unemployment Insurance benefits 

Business leaders are proceeding with caution because of the increasingly uncertain economic news. This often means taking less risk – the ideas remain, but expansions and increased capital investment are put on hold. Hiring is also slowing, as businesses struggle to shoulder additional costs. While these are financial concerns that they can control, there is so much they can’t. Supply chain disruptions due to global conflicts upset even the smallest Vermont businesses.  

As the 2023 legislative session has barely begun, spending proposals to fund programs are already mounting. While proposals are worthy endeavors, the cumulative impact of these millions of dollars of new taxes and spending could overwhelm the Vermont economy. The Vermont Chamber is tracking these impacts on the business community and its workers. Email us at govaffairs@vtchamber.com if you have one to add to the list.  

Anticipated in 2023: 

  • New investments in the childcare system are projected to cost hundreds of millions more per year 
  • Paid Family and Medical Leave, previously estimated to cost $80 million per year 
  • Universal School Meals, estimated to cost $30 million per year 
  • Education Spending, estimated to cost $1.711 billion per year 
  • Affordable housing proposal for $175 million
  • Clean Heat Standard, vetoed last year, is likely to be revived as the “Affordable Heating Act.”  
  • A tax on sports betting is expected to raise $10 million per year  
  • A doubling of the tipped minimum wage would double the total cost of labor for restaurants to employ front-of-house workers 
  • Amending the Renewable Energy Standards to require 100% renewable or carbon-free electricity 

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Governor Scott Echoes the Vermont Chamber’s Commitment to the Economy

Governor Scott Echoes the Vermont Chamber’s Commitment to the Economy

In his Inaugural Address, many of the policy priorities presented by the Governor reflect those that the Vermont Chamber has highlighted. Housing, workforce recruitment and retention, and valuing economic stewardship, were all key themes. 

On housing, the Governor discussed the need for regulatory reforms, to ensure housing can be built as quickly and affordably as needed. He called on legislators who campaigned on housing as a top priority to make modernization a priority this session. When reflecting on workforce shortages, an issue the Vermont Chamber has been shining a light on for years, he noted that the most recent data shows the gap is seven times the size it was in 2019, with Vermont in need of 22,500 workers. The Vermont Chamber has presented innovative ideas to address this problem 

The Governor also reflected on inflation, and the economic conditions facing Vermonters, stating, “We must find ways to achieve our shared goals without adding taxes and fees because this only increases the cost of living.” The Governor went on to promote his voluntary paid family and medical leave program, which does not impose any new taxes while offering businesses a path to providing this benefit to employees. It is anticipated that the legislature’s alternate proposal may be funded by a significant payroll tax.  

Governor Scott closed his speech by calling on the legislature to recognize the “once in a lifetime” opportunity of remaining one-time federal funds available from pandemic recovery assistance. The complete transcript of the speech is available, here. The Governor will address the legislature again on January 20th, when he presents his budget.  

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Healthcare Roundup

Healthcare Roundup

Several evolvements in the shifting healthcare landscape have made headlines in recent months: 

  • On the national level, Sen. Joe Manchin and Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer came to an agreement on Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, extending the subsidies to 2025 with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. The subsidies, eligible to those purchasing in the Vermont Health Connect marketplace, were previously set to expire at the end of 2022. 
  • Without those federal subsidies, employees of small businesses would have paid more for health care. The Vermont Chamber participated in the working group, as per H.489 (Act 137), with the Department of Financial Regulation and the GMCB  to make recommendations on maintaining separate individual and small-group health insurance markets. The extension of the ACA subsidies at the federal level provides a longer runway for this work.   
  • Last session, the Vermont Chamber advocated to maintain separate markets, securing $17.7 million in healthcare savings for small businesses. However, premiums are trending up for 2023 as the GMCB’s 2023 rate review forecasts nearly 20% increases.  
  • In September, Governor Scott announced new appointments to the Green Mountain Care Board (GMCB) adding one new member, Dr. David Murman of Waterbury, and retaining Board member Robin Lunge of Berlin, who will serve on the 5-person board alongside the newly appointed board chair, Owen Foster of Middlebury. The GMCB is charged with balancing increasing health costs and insurance rates without overly burdening ratepayers.  

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Attracting More Workers for a Successful Future

Attracting More Workers for a Successful Future

Vermont continues to lead the nation in addressing complex issues, but we are also experiencing an aging population and a declining workforce. By elevating our achievements, Vermont can attract more workers to ensure a more secure economic future. To do this, we must utilize creative avenues to capitalize on our strengths and promote Vermont as a great place to live, work, and raise a family: 

  • Establish ambassador programs to recruit workers in targeted industries 
  • Build on the successful ThinkVT website and create a comprehensive online toolkit to assist in relocation to Vermont 
  • Expand upon relocation testimonials to create promotional materials highlighting diverse Vermont voices 

 More information on a strategic approach to elevate Vermont’s achievements to address our declining demographics is available, HERE. 

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